Latest Maritime Flashpoint
Kuwait airport strike
PBS / AP Jun 3: Iranian drones struck a passenger terminal at Kuwait International Airport -- 1 killed (Indian national), 63+ injured; Kuwait closed the airport and expelled two Iranian diplomats | US struck an IRGC ground-control/radar facility on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, and hit Tehran + the Kharg Island oil terminal in the prior 36h | Iran targeted the US 5th Fleet HQ in Bahrain (3 missiles + drones intercepted) | Caveat: ceasefire strained but not broken; Hormuz remains controlled / militarized
Reopening Framework
Upon signing
ABC / Tasnim Jun 4: Trump says Hormuz opens "immediately upon signing" the MOU (subject to mine clearance, "which we do not think there are any"), floats a deal "as soon as this weekend" and possible direct contact with the Supreme Leader | Araghchi (late Jun 3): "no tangible progress" in US talks | Rubio Jun 2: any deal needs no transit tolls, no attacks on vessels, and Iranian help removing mines | UK/France finalizing a multinational mine-clearing coalition; EU proposes Aspides take "the primary role" | Not yet signed
Vessels Trapped (Persian Gulf)
~2,000
Al Jazeera May 21: around 2,000 ships were stranded on both sides of the Strait after traffic halted | Less than 4% of normal traffic has navigated since the blockade | IMO/UN concern remains acute; MARAD 2026-004: high attack risk and GNSS spoofing/jamming across Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman
WTI Crude (Jun 4)
$92.27
WTI / CLUSD $92.27 (-1.59%) and Brent / BZUSD $94.81 (-3.07%) at the Jun 4 14:11 UTC finance fetch | Prices eased on ceasefire-framework hopes after spiking to WTI $96.02 / Brent $97.81 on the Jun 3 Kuwait-airport and cross-Gulf strikes; the strait remains controlled and not reopened
War Risk Premium
1–3%
Up from 0.25% pre-conflict | MARAD 2026-004 active through Sep 9: high Iranian attack risk across Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman | JMIC Update 024 overall maritime risk: CRITICAL
Theatre of Operations
LIVE
Strike / Attack
Anchored Fleet
US Naval
Iran Military
26.56°N 56.25°E
Crisis Timeline
WTI Crude Oil
+50%+ since strikesLatest Intel
Live
Crossings (IRGC 24h claim)
26 out / permissioned
Al Jazeera May 20 / IRNA: IRGC says 26 vessels were coordinated out of Hormuz in 24 hours; traffic requires IRGC Navy authorization/collaboration | PGSA regulated-area map spans Kuh Mubarak-Fujairah and Qeshm-Umm al-Quwain approaches | Less than 4% normal traffic since blockade | AIS-derived counts remain indicative, not exhaustive
AIS/GPS Jamming
1,650+
+55% this week
Insurance Status
VOID
P&I coverage revoked
Passage Authorization Fee
Up to $2M
Al Jazeera May 21: reported Iranian security / authorization fees as high as $2M per vessel | Legality disputed under freedom-of-navigation rules
Vessel Transit Log
| Date | Crossings | In | Out | Notable Incidents |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 3 | 24/24h IRGC permit claim | <4% norm | ~2,000 | DAY 96: IRAN DRONES STRIKE KUWAIT INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT -- 1 KILLED, 63+ INJURED -- US-IRAN TRADE STRIKES -- US HITS IRGC RADAR/CONTROL FACILITY ON QESHM ISLAND IN THE STRAIT -- IRAN TARGETS US 5TH FLEET HQ BAHRAIN -- KUWAIT EXPELS 2 IRANIAN DIPLOMATS -- BRENT $97.81, WTI $96.02. PBS / AP Jun 3: Iranian drones struck a passenger terminal at Kuwait International Airport, killing one (an Indian national) and injuring at least 63; Kuwait briefly closed the airport, expelled two Iranian diplomats, and said it intercepted over a dozen missiles and a similar number of drones. The US military said it struck an IRGC ground-control / radar facility on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz -- IRGC tunnels housing anti-ship missiles, drones, and fast-attack craft -- and hit Tehran and the Kharg Island oil terminal in the prior 36 hours. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it targeted the US Navy 5th Fleet HQ in Bahrain; US and Bahraini forces intercepted three missiles and several drones. Day 96 left the war under a fragile, unbroken ceasefire. Brent settled $97.81 (+1.89%), WTI $96.02 (+2.4%). |
| Jun 1 | talks suspended | <4% norm | ~2,000 | DAY 94: IRAN SUSPENDS US TALKS OVER LEBANON -- VOWS TO FULLY CLOSE HORMUZ AND "ACTIVATE" BAB EL-MANDEB -- PARTIAL ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH CEASEFIRE PROPOSED -- GHAANI THREATENS BAB EL-MANDEB -- HOUTHI "HANDS ON TRIGGER." CNBC / CNN Jun 1: Iran's Tasnim reported Iranian negotiators ceased communicating with the US through intermediaries, with "no dialogue" until Israel withdraws from Lebanon and halts offensives in Lebanon and Gaza, and that the "resistance front" committed to entirely obstruct Hormuz and activate the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. FM Araghchi posted the ceasefire covers "all fronts including Lebanon." Trump and Netanyahu spoke; Israel agreed not to strike Beirut and Hezbollah accepted a US-mediated partial proposal, though Iran and Hezbollah demanded a complete end to operations across Lebanon. IRGC Quds commander Ghaani threatened to "activate" Bab el-Mandeb; a senior Houthi official said the group's "hands are on the trigger." Pakistan mediates between Washington and Tehran. |
| May 26 | controlled no normal reopen | <4% norm | ~1,500-2,000 | DAY 88: US STRIKES SOUTHERN IRAN NEAR HORMUZ -- BANDAR ABBAS EXPLOSIONS -- MISSILE LAUNCHERS + MINE-LAYING VESSELS STRUCK, 4 IRGC KIA PER FOX/CENTCOM -- IRGC DOWNED ONE MQ-9 -- HEZBOLLAH DRONE SWARM ACROSS ISRAEL BORDER -- IRAN INTERNET RESTORED AFTER 87+ DAYS -- DOHA TALKS CONTINUE -- NYT/NEW ARAB: MOU TERMS INCLUDE $24-25B FROZEN-ASSET RELEASE (50% ON SIGN / REST IN 60D), LIFT OF US NAVAL BLOCKADE, CEASEFIRE ON ALL FRONTS INCL LEBANON -- REUTERS/NIKKEI: 30-DAY MINE-CLEARING WINDOW AFTER DEAL -- WTI $94.01, BRENT $100.08. Al Jazeera May 26: US forces conducted "self-defense" strikes in southern Iran after explosions were heard near Bandar Abbas, targeting missile launch facilities and vessels involved in mine-laying operations; Fox News (via CENTCOM) reports 4 IRGC personnel killed aboard fast-attack boats near the Strait. IRGC said it downed one MQ-9 Reaper. Iran's Foreign Ministry accused the US of breaching the ceasefire with "aggressive acts" in the Hormozgan region and said Iran would "not hesitate to defend itself." Hezbollah retaliated with a drone swarm across the Israeli border. President Pezeshkian ordered the restoration of internet services after a nationwide blackout lasting more than 87 days. Mojtaba Khamenei warned Gulf powers "will no longer be a shield" for US bases. Rubio said Qatar talks continue, draft language may take "a few days," and the Strait will remain accessible "one way or the other." Iran FM spokesman Baghaei called the framework preliminary, said an agreement is not imminent, and gave mixed signals on whether Iran would still impose transit fees. Trump says any deal should involve Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey signing onto the Abraham Accords; reports cite the deal as "95% complete." NYT / New Arab: MOU terms (per anonymous senior Iranian officials) include release of $24-25B in frozen Iranian assets — half on MOU announcement, remainder within 60 days — lifting of the US naval blockade, and an all-fronts ceasefire including Lebanon (Hezbollah). Reuters / Nikkei: 30-day mine-clearance window post-deal, then free navigation, no Iranian transit fees, 60-day ceasefire extension during nuclear talks. Lebanon MoH: 3,185 killed, 9,633 injured since early March. Tehran says 97% of minor-damage structures repaired. Current finance snapshot: WTI / CLUSD $94.01 (-2.68%), Brent / BZUSD $100.08 (-3.34%) at May 26 16:02 UTC. |
| May 24 | 26 out IRGC claim | <4% norm | ~2,000 | DAY 86: CONTROLLED PASSAGE, NOT NORMAL REOPENING -- US-IRAN FRAMEWORK "LARGELY NEGOTIATED" BUT UNFINALIZED -- OSINT: 60-DAY MOU WOULD REOPEN HORMUZ + CLEAR MINES -- IRGC CLAIMS 26 VESSELS COORDINATED OUT IN 24H -- CENTCOM OSINT: 100 REDIRECTED / 26 HUMANITARIAN PASSED -- PGSA PERMISSION MAP -- FEES REPORTED UP TO $2M/VESSEL -- WTI $96.60, BRENT $103.54. Al Jazeera May 23: Trump says a ceasefire/MOU is largely negotiated and would include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but remains subject to finalization. @sentdefender May 24, citing Axios/U.S. officials, reports proposed 60-day MOU terms: Iran clears mines deployed in the Strait and lets ships pass freely; U.S. lifts blockade on Iranian ports and issues sanctions waivers for Iranian oil/energy exports. Al Jazeera May 20: IRGC says it coordinated 26 vessels out of Hormuz in 24 hours and that traffic is conducted with IRGC Navy authorization/collaboration. PGSA map asserts a regulated area across the Kuh Mubarak-Fujairah and Qeshm-Umm al-Quwain approaches. Al Jazeera May 21: less than 4% of normal peacetime traffic has navigated since blockade; around 2,000 ships were stranded after traffic halted; reported authorization/security fees up to $2M/vessel. @sentdefender May 23 also cites a CENTCOM graphic claiming 100 ships redirected, 4 disabled, and 26 humanitarian-aid ships allowed through. Friday market close/reference quote: WTI / CLUSD $96.60 (+0.26%), Brent / BZUSD $103.54 (+0.94%) at May 22 21:00 UTC; weekend markets closed. |
| May 18 | — | — | — | DAY 80: STRAIT EFFECTIVELY CLOSED / FRAGILE CEASEFIRE HOLDING -- US-IRAN TALKS FALTER AFTER FAILED ISLAMABAD ROUND -- IRAN OPEN TO BEIJING MEDIATION POST TRUMP/XI -- IRAN PREPARING ROUTE-FEE / DESIGNATED-LANE "PROFESSIONAL MECHANISM" -- WTI $106.55 (+1.07%) BRENT $110.22 (+0.87%). Al Jazeera (May 16): Day 78 since Feb 28 conflict began; fragile ceasefire holding; US-Iran negotiations faltering after failed Islamabad talks; Iran says it is open to Beijing mediation following Trump/Xi engagement; Strait of Hormuz effectively closed (normally ~1/5 of global oil and gas). Iran preparing "professional mechanism" for designated-route traffic, fees, and denial of access to parties supporting US "Project Freedom." Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi: Iran remains ready to resume direct military conflict if negotiations fail. Iranian internet blackout Day 78 as of May 16; food inflation 115%; rial ~1.8M/USD. Trading Economics May 18: WTI $106.55 (+1.07%), Brent $110.22 (+0.87%), driven by stalled talks and continued near-shutdown of Hormuz. CNBC (May 14): Trump/Xi said Strait must remain open for uninterrupted energy flow; Xi opposed militarization and fees. IEA: supply loss now >14M bpd cumulative, >1bn barrels drained from global reserves; OPEC 2026 demand growth cut to ~1.2M bpd. |
| May 11 | 6+ / 0t since Wed | — | — | DAY 73: EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED / CRITICAL RISK -- NYT/MARINETRAFFIC: 6+ CARGO, NO TANKERS SINCE WED -- ~1,600 VESSELS TRAPPED -- CENTCOM 58 SHIPS INTERCEPTED+REDIRECTED, 4 DISABLED -- MARAD 2026-004 ACTIVE. Latest open-source picture: Strait remains restricted rather than reopened. NYT (May 9) / MarineTraffic: at least six cargo vessels through since Wednesday and no tanker transits; approximately 1,600 vessels still trapped in the Persian Gulf. US Central Command said 58 commercial ships had been intercepted and redirected and four other vessels disabled. MARAD advisory 2026-004 remains active through Sep 9: Iranian attack risk against commercial shipping high across the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman; significant GNSS spoofing/jamming. JMIC Update 024 keeps overall maritime risk at CRITICAL and warns AIS-derived transit figures are indicative, not exhaustive. UN News (Apr 26): up to 20,000 seafarers stranded on ~2,000 vessels; IMO head: naval escorts "not a sustainable solution." WTI $98.67 (+3.41%), Brent $104.66 (+3.33%) at 08:07 UTC fetch. |
| May 9 | 6+ / 0t since Wed | — | — | DAY 71: TRAFFIC DIMINISHES AGAIN -- NYT: STRAIT EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED AFTER NAVAL SKIRMISHES. NYT (May 9) reported the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively blocked after naval skirmishes; MarineTraffic data showed at least six cargo vessels through since Wednesday but no tankers, while LSEG monitoring showed daily crossings had diminished since Monday from already-low levels. Approximately 1,600 vessels remained trapped in the Persian Gulf. CSIS (Apr 23): the strait has been effectively closed since Mar 2; route patterns have shifted closer to Iranian waters since Mar 15. JMIC caveat: AIS-derived counts indicative, not exhaustive. |
| May 5 | 2 US-esc | — | — | DAY 67: IRAN-US CLASH AT HORMUZ -- 5 CIVILIANS / 6-7 IRGC BOATS (CONFLICTING CLAIMS). Iran says US forces destroyed two small passenger boats traveling Khasab, Oman to Iranian coast Mon, killing 5 civilians (Iran claim). US CENTCOM (Adm Brad Cooper): sank 6 IRGC boats interfering with Project Freedom escort op; Trump said 7. Iran FM Araghchi: "Project Freedom is Project Deadlock." Two US-flagged ships transited under US Navy guided-missile destroyer escort -- Maersk-confirmed Alliance Fairfax (US claim; IRGC denied). South Korean HMM Namu suffered engine-room fire after explosion. Project Freedom destabilizing fragile Apr 8 ceasefire; Strait restricted until US-Iran agreement. WTI ~$104.28 (-2.0%) holding most of Mon\'s rally. Brent ~$113.34 (-1.0%). |
| May 4 | — | — | — | DAY 66: UAE INTERCEPTS IRAN BARRAGE -- FUJAIRAH REFINERY ABLAZE -- ADNOC TANKER STRUCK -- BRENT TOPS $114. UAE air defenses engaged 12 ballistic missiles + 3 cruise missiles + 4 drones from Iran (UAE MFA). Iranian drone sparked "large fire" at Fujairah Petroleum Industries Zone refinery; 3 Indians moderately wounded. ADNOC-affiliated Barakah oil tanker hit by 2 drones in Hormuz (not loaded, no injuries). UAE MFA condemned "renewed terrorist, unprovoked Iranian attacks." Iran (via IRIB military source): no pre-planned programme, attributed to "US military adventurism aimed at creating a passage for the illegal transit of ships through the restricted waterways." Tasnim warned UAE: "all of its interests will become Iran\'s target" if it acts unwisely. First UAE attacks since Apr 8 ceasefire. Brent +5% to $114 (4-yr high since May 2022); WTI +3% to ~$105. |
| Apr 29 | — | — | — | DAY 61: BLOCKADE ENDURANCE -- BRENT TOPS $115. Reuters Apr 29: Trump met Tuesday with Chevron CEO Mike Wirth and other senior energy company officials, plus VP Vance, Treasury Sec Bessent, Chief of Staff Wiles, envoy Witkoff, Kushner. White House: discussed oil production, futures, shipping, gas, and steps to "calm markets if the Iran port blockade continues for months." Brent June settled $114.77 (+3.2%, intraday high $115.64, 1-mo high). WTI June ~$103.40 (+3.5%). Trading Economics intraday CFDs: Brent ~$118-119. Diplomacy stalled -- US/Iran negotiators failed to meet, ceasefire holds but no compromise. Lifting US embargo remains Tehran's key precondition. Hormuz traffic remains constrained but not literally zero. |
| Apr 28 | — | — | — | DAY 60: WINDWARD/VORTEXA REPORT. Apr 28 published data on Apr 27 traffic confirmed (see Apr 27 row). Gulf vessel presence 896, down 24. Dark activity 111 events, declining. No new VLCC arrivals since Apr 24. Seven days ending Apr 27: 3 VLCCs + 1 Suezmax entered Malacca eastbound -- ALL loaded BEFORE Apr 13 embargo; NONE of 7 tankers loading in Iran since Apr 13 has yet completed Malacca voyage. Iranian crude exports to Asia first 28 days April: 1.3M bpd. Kharg loadings April-to-date: 1.2M bpd vs 1.9M Mar vs 2.2M Feb. ~153M bbl Iranian oil on water. One Japanese-owned, Panama-flagged laden LNG carrier transited Hormuz -- one of few post-Apr 22 non-Iran-linked transits. |
| Apr 27 | 13 | 3 | 10 | DAY 59: 13 HORMUZ TRANSITS (WINDWARD/VORTEXA). 10 outbound + 3 inbound; 12 AIS-visible + 1 dark outbound. Diplomacy stalled -- Reuters Apr 25: Trump canceled US envoys' Pakistan trip, blow to talks. Iran insists enrichment right "indisputable"; embargo lift is precondition. CENTCOM: blockade fully implemented, 37 vessels redirected since Apr 13. White House (per Apr 29 readout) prepping for blockade to continue "for months if needed." IMF earlier-April warning: escalation could push global economy toward recession; 2026 MENA growth cut to 1.1% from 3.9%. Lebanon 3-week ceasefire extension (Apr 23) fragile but holding. |
| Apr 24 | ~1 | — | — | DAY 56: STALEMATE DEEPENS. Iran reportedly bypassing US blockade by exporting oil from eastern port of Chabahar (outside Gulf). Iran ambassador Moghaddam met Pakistan PM Sharif in Islamabad — Pakistan key mediator. IRGC aerospace cmdr: “fingers on trigger” for Gulf Arab states if war resumes. Leaked US intel (Axios): ~50% Iran ballistic missiles intact, ~60% IRGC Navy, ~2/3 air force. Supreme Leader reportedly incapacitated -- Vahidi ascendant. Trump giving Iran “limited window of several days.” Hormuz near zero (Bloomberg Apr 21: 1 outbound, 0 inbound). Lebanon ceasefire on 3-week extension. WTI $96.22 (+0.39%), Brent $105.50 (+0.41%). |
| Apr 23 | ~1 | — | 2 | DAY 55: LEBANON EXTENDED, IRAN DEADLOCKED. Trump announced 3-week extension of Apr 16 Lebanon ceasefire after Apr 22 became deadliest day since truce began (5 killed inc. journalist Amal Khalil). Hezbollah conducted 4 retaliatory operations. Rubio attended 2nd Lebanon-Israel talks. Iran FM Araghchi: US blockade is “act of war” — threatened strikes on regional energy/desalination. Mojtaba Khamenei: Hormuz stays closed to all supporting “Zionist aggression.” Ghalibaf adviser: extension “has no meaning.” IRGC intercepted M/V Hero II + M/V Hedy; US destroyer escorted M/V Dorena out of blockade zone. WTI $95.85 (+3.67%) -- 4-day rally. Brent ~$102. |
| Apr 22 | ~1 | 2 | 3 | DAY 54: CEASEFIRE EXPIRES, TRUMP EXTENDS INDEFINITELY. Two-week ceasefire expired 0000 GMT Wednesday. Hours before expiry, Trump announced indefinite extension pending Iran unified proposal. IRGC seized Panama-flagged MSC Francesca (Iran linked to Israel) + Liberia-flagged Epaminondas at Hormuz — state TV broadcast boarding footage. Third vessel Euphoria (Emirati-operated) fired on with RPGs, reached UAE unscathed. Washington: seized ships neither US nor Israeli -- no ceasefire violation. VP Vance canceled Islamabad trip; US delegation never departed DC. Iran never confirmed attendance. Iran: Hormuz stays closed while blockade remains. Brent peaked $101.14 intraday then eased to $98.36 (+$4.82 in 24hrs). WTI settled $92.80 (-0.17%). ISW: IRGC Cmdr Vahidi willing to scrap talks and resume war. |
| Apr 21 | ~2 | — | — | DAY 53: IRAN REFUSES TALKS. Tehran rejected second round of Islamabad talks, declaring it will not negotiate “under the shadow of threats.” Iran FM Baghaei: blockade must be lifted first. Trump: blockade stays until deal. US advance teams already in Islamabad; Vance and Witkoff on standby. Pakistan: “window still open.” Ceasefire expires tomorrow Apr 22. Hormuz closed — hundreds of ships queued. Lebanon ceasefire Day 5, holding. Brent $94.86, WTI ~$91. |
| Apr 20 | ~2 | — | — | DAY 52: BLOCKADE STAYS — IRAN REFUSES ROUND 2. Trump declared blockade will remain until deal reached. Iran stated “no plans” for Islamabad talks citing MV Touska seizure as “piracy” and “ceasefire violation.” Iran: “no prospect of productive negotiations.” Hundreds of ships queued at Hormuz approaches. Pakistan cautiously optimistic. Iran later hinted delegation may attend (WSJ). Ceasefire expires Apr 22 — 2 days. Lebanon ceasefire Day 4, holding. WTI ~$86, Brent ~$96.26. |
| Apr 19 | ~2 | 1 | — | DAY 51: MV TOUSKA SEIZED. USS Spruance fired on and disabled Iranian-flagged cargo vessel MV Touska attempting to breach blockade en route to Bandar Abbas — first boarding since blockade began Apr 13. US Marines (31st MEU) rappelled from helicopters and took full custody. Trump: “Our Navy ship halted them immediately.” Touska already under US Treasury sanctions. Iran military command: “piracy” and “breach of ceasefire” — pledged retaliation. Iranian gunboats also attacked French bulk carrier + British tanker on Saturday. Lebanon ceasefire Day 3. WTI spiked ~$97. Brent ~$96.98. |
| Apr 18 | ~2 | — | — | DAY 50: HORMUZ RE-CLOSED. Iran shut Strait again after US refused to lift naval blockade of Iranian ports, reversing Friday’s opening within hours. VLCC Sanmar Herald fired on by two IRGC gunboats despite prior clearance — forced to turn back. Container ship struck by rocket off Oman coast (no casualties). Video shows multiple vessels turning away. Iran: closure “direct consequence” of US blockade. Trump signs Executive Order. Trump: deal “close” but warns military action could resume. Rubio (Fri): Iran “nearing nuclear capability.” Ceasefire expires Apr 22 — 4 days. WTI ~$83, Brent ~$86. |
| Apr 17 | ~5 | — | — | DAY 49: HORMUZ OPENS (BRIEFLY) -- OIL CRASHES -11.45%. Iran FM Araghchi: Strait “fully open” for Lebanon ceasefire duration. WTI plunged -11.45% to $83.99 (low $80.59, 5-week low); Brent ~$86. Lebanon 10-day ceasefire takes effect midnight Beirut — celebratory gunfire in streets. Trump Truth Social: “STRAIT IS OPEN AND FULL PASS... NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN.” Lebanon PM Salam: “crucial demand.” Netanyahu: Israel troops NOT withdrawing from S. Lebanon 10km zone. UK/France: Paris summit of 30+ countries on Hormuz strategy. US-Iran “in-principle” agreement to extend Apr 22 ceasefire. Trump: war “ending pretty soon.” Iran closed again Sat AM. |
| Apr 16 | ~4 | — | — | DAY 48: DIPLOMACY ACCELERATES. Trump: Round 2 talks “this weekend”; hints at flying to Islamabad for signing: “If a deal is signed in Islamabad, I may go.” Iran UN ambassador: “cautiously optimistic.” HEU compromise: Iran now considering shipping part of stockpile out (reversal). Pakistan Army Chief Munir flies to Tehran, meets Ghalibaf. Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire announced (takes effect 17:00 EST). Netanyahu: ceasefire “to advance peace efforts” but troops staying. Lebanon PM Salam: “crucial demand since onset of conflict.” Casualties: >2,100 killed in Lebanon, 23 in Israel. WTI $93.29 (+1.94%), Brent ~$97. |
| Apr 15 | ~4 | — | — | DAY 47: DIPLOMACY WINDOW. Trump: war “very close to over” (Fox News). Second Islamabad round imminent — Apr 17–19 dates open. Israel-Lebanon first direct talks in 30+ years (Washington DC). Iran considering short-term Hormuz shipment pause ahead of talks (Bloomberg). CENTCOM: 6 ships turned back, blockade holding. Ceasefire expires Apr 22. WTI ~$92, Brent ~$95. |
| Apr 14 | ~4 | — | — | DAY 46: BLOCKADE ECONOMICS. Trump: second talks in Islamabad “within two days.” Blockade costs Iran ~$435M/day (ISW). Iran onshore storage: 13 days before forced production halt. Bessent: blockade cuts China off from Iranian oil (90%+ of exports). Iran pressuring Houthis to close Bab el-Mandeb. Rich Starry, Elpis, Christianna departed Strait. 6 vessels turned back. WTI -7.87% to $92.39, Brent $95.10. |
| Apr 13 | ~4 | — | — | DAY 45: US NAVAL BLOCKADE GOES LIVE (14:00 UTC). CENTCOM: all vessels to/from Iranian ports interdicted in Gulf of Oman & Arabian Sea. Non-Iranian transits permitted through Strait. China’s sanctioned “Rich Starry” first ship to transit Hormuz since blockade — entered Gulf from UAE. 6 merchant vessels comply, return to Iranian ports. “Double blockade” era begins. WTI $98.01 (+2.6%), Brent $98.15. |
| Apr 12 | ~4 | — | — | DAY 44: ISLAMABAD TALKS COLLAPSE. 21 hrs of negotiations — no deal. Vance boards Air Force Two. Araghchi: “inches from MoU — then maximalism.” Ghalibaf: “US did not gain Iran’s trust.” Trump announces naval blockade of Strait. Iran: “maximum combat alert.” IRGC: military vessels “will be met with firm response.” Pakistan: talks “important opening step.” WTI $96.57, Brent $95.20 (−12.9%). |
| Apr 11 | ~6 | — | — | DAY 43: Islamabad Talks begin. VP Vance arrived 1:29am ET after 16+ hrs travel. Greeted by Field Marshal Munir. Iranian delegation: Ghalibaf + Araghchi. Iran preconditions: Lebanon ceasefire + frozen assets. Vance: “If they try to play us, they will find the team is not receptive.” Trump: Iran has “no cards.” Sharif: “make-or-break moment.” Key issues: Hormuz control, Lebanon/Hezbollah, Iran uranium. Hormuz at ~10% capacity. WTI ~$97, Brent ~$97. |
| Apr 10 | ~6 | — | — | DAY 42: Iranian delegation (Ghalibaf + Araghchi) arrived Islamabad. Vance departed D.C. Israel struck Nabatieh — 13 Lebanese State Security killed. IDF Chief Zamir: “IDF is at war in Lebanon... deepen ground operations.” Hezbollah: 72 strikes Thu, 19 strikes Fri on Israel. Kuwait accused Iran/proxies of drone attacks despite ceasefire. TotalEnergies shut SATORP refinery in Saudi Arabia. Pakistan + France FMs raised “serious ceasefire violations” in Lebanon. Only 12 ships in 2 days vs 129/day pre-war. WTI ~$97 (-1.3%). Brent $96.98. |
| Apr 9 | ~7 | — | — | DAY 41: Netanyahu: “no ceasefire in Lebanon.” IDF killed Qassem’s nephew Harshi in Beirut. Operation Eternal Darkness toll rises to 357 dead, 1,223 wounded. BBC: military gains “limited.” Iran threatens to abandon truce over Lebanon. IRGC denies ceasefire violations. Hormuz: ~10 ships in 24hrs — traffic “essentially halted” (ABC/Stars&Stripes). Abu Dhabi oil chief: strait “not accessible.” S. Korea: 26 vessels stranded. WTI +3.66% ~$98. Brent $101 morning. |
| Apr 8 | ~7 | — | — | DAY 40: Ceasefire in effect. Israel launches “Operation Eternal Darkness” on Lebanon — heaviest strikes of war. 50 jets, 160 munitions, 100+ targets in 10 min. 357+ killed, 1,223 wounded (Lebanese Health Ministry). IDF claims 180+ Hezbollah fighters killed. Shmestar funeral strike: 10 mourners killed. Lebanon calls it “Black Wednesday.” UN condemns. Hormuz reopening begins but shipping cautious. WTI crashes ~16% to ~$96. Brent ~$94. |
| Apr 7 | ~5 | — | — | DAY 39: Trump agreed 2-week ceasefire ~90 min before 8pm ET deadline. Had warned "a whole civilization will die tonight." Iran accepted via Supreme National Security Council. Israel also suspends bombing (Reuters). Pakistan brokered: FM Sharif + Field Marshal Munir + Witkoff + Araghchi. Iran's 10-point plan = "workable basis" (Trump). "Islamabad Accord" (Reuters). WTI crashed ~15% from $112.95 to $95.63 (CNBC). |
| Apr 6 | ~5 | — | — | DAY 38: IDF killed IRGC intel chief Khademi + Quds Force cmdr Bagheri. Iran sent 10-point response via Pakistan -- rejected temp ceasefire, demanded permanent end. Trump: "Open the F****** Strait" -- set firm 8pm ET Apr 7 deadline. 19 killed near Tehran. Cluster munitions on Tel Aviv. WTI $112.41 (MarketWatch). |
| Apr 5 | ~5 | — | — | DAY 37: Missing F-15 WSO rescued in "heavy firefight" by hundreds of special forces (Axios). CIA located him. IRGC downed MQ-9 Reaper drone. Mahshahr Petrochemical Zone: 5 killed, 170 wounded. Houthis + Iran + Hezbollah coordinated strike on Israel. Kuwait power/desalination hit. Trump 48-hr ultimatum. |
| Apr 4 | ~5 | — | — | DAY 36: F-15E Strike Eagle shot down over Iran -- first US aircraft lost in 20+ yrs (Military.com/CBS). Pilot rescued, WSO missing. A-10 also downed, pilot safe (Axios). UAE: 1 killed at Abu Dhabi gas facility. Bahrain: 4 injured. Kuwait refinery struck. Philippines granted Hormuz safe passage. WTI surges above $110. |
| Apr 3 | ~5 | — | — | DAY 35: Pasteur Institute + Tehran-Karaj bridge struck -- 8 killed, ~100 injured. Hegseth fires Army Chief Gen. Randy George mid-war. GCC asks UN for Hormuz force authorization. UK talks with 40 nations. USS Gerald R. Ford departs Croatia. WTI ~$107. |
| Apr 2 | ~5 | 1 | — | DAY 34: Tanker struck by projectile off Doha, Qatar -- damage, no injuries (British maritime security/Al Jazeera). Saudi intercepted 4 drones + 1 ballistic missile targeting eastern oil region (NPR). Bahrain closed highway due to intercept debris. UK hosts 35-nation virtual summit on Hormuz reopening -- US not participating. IRGC: Hormuz "firmly and dominantly" under its control. Trump offered NO plan to reopen Hormuz in national address. WTI surges +6.4% to $106.55, Brent +6.9% to $108.15 (CBS). |
| Apr 1 | ~5 | — | — | DAY 33: Trump signals US exit in 2-3 weeks. IRGC threatens 18 US tech firms. Trump: Hormuz "not US problem." WTI $101.38 (-1.5%). National address Wednesday 9pm ET. |
| Mar 31 | ~5 | 1 | — | DAY 32: Iranian drone strikes fully laden Kuwaiti tanker at Dubai Port -- fire extinguished, no spill. Iran parliament committee approves Hormuz toll plan. India receiving first Iranian oil since 2019 (600K bbl via Ping Shun). Trump willing to end war without Hormuz reopening. WTI $101.38 (-1.5%). |
| Mar 30 | ~6 | — | — | DAY 31: Trump threatens to destroy all Iran energy infrastructure. 4th Iranian missile intercepted over Turkey. Pakistan talks stalling. WTI surges +3.25% to $102.88. |
| Mar 29 | — | — | — | DAY 30: Pakistan to host US-Iran talks. Bandar Khamir struck, 5 killed. Iran 5-point counter-proposal: stop assassinations, reparations, Hormuz sovereignty. WTI $99.64. |
| Mar 28 | ~5 | — | — | DAY 29: HOUTHIS JOIN WAR -- missiles at Beersheba + Eilat. IDF hits Natanz, Isfahan, Parchin nuclear sites. Prince Sultan AB: 29 US wounded, E-3 Sentry damaged. Iran University struck. WTI $99.64 (+5.5%). |
| Mar 27 | ~4 | — | — | DAY 28: Iran missile+drone strike on Prince Sultan AB -- 12 US wounded, 2 serious. E-3 Sentry damaged. Rubio: can't achieve goals without ground troops. Iran Hormuz toll legislation drafted. 20 more Pakistani ships granted transit. WTI surges to $99.64. |
| Mar 26 | ~4 | — | — | DAY 27: Iran toll plan emerges. CENTCOM: 11,000+ targets struck, 130+ vessels destroyed. Ceasefire talks "dead on arrival." WTI rebounds to $94.48 (+8.8%). |
| Mar 25 | ~4 | — | — | DAY 26: Thai tanker (Bangchak Corp) safely transits Hormuz after diplomatic coordination -- no fee. Iran tells UN maritime agency "non-hostile" ships may transit with prior coordination. S&P Global: 4 ships on Mar 24 (2 Iran-linked incl. sanctioned Alexandra with transponder off), 5 on Mar 23. ~1,000 paratroopers from 82nd Airborne deploying. Iran rejects US 15-point ceasefire plan, issues counter-demands. WTI crashes -5.99% to $86.82. Brent ~$92. |
| Mar 24 | ~4 | — | — | DAY 25: Trump extends Hormuz deadline 5 days. US 15-point ceasefire plan sent via Pakistan. Iran denies talks, launches new missile barrage at Israel. David's Sling interceptor failure. 82nd Airborne ~3,000 paratroopers prepping. Japan: 2 tankers arriving via Red Sea (Yanbu route, bypassing Hormuz). WTI surges +4.79% to $92.35. Brent ~$96. |
| Mar 23 | ~2 | — | — | DAY 24: TRUMP DEADLINE DAY. 48-hr ultimatum expires Monday evening Washington time. Iran defiant -- threatened to completely close Hormuz and strike Gulf power plants/desalination if US hits Iranian power grid. 20+ nation joint statement condemns blockade. IEA warns worst energy crisis since 1970s. WTI $101.01 (+2.83%). Hormuz remains effectively closed. Death toll estimates 5,300+ in first 18 days (Hengaw; note: Iran Health Ministry figure 2 days later was 1,500 — wide discrepancy reflects different sources/methodologies). |
| Mar 22 | ~2 | — | — | DAY 23: TRUMP ISSUES 48-HR ULTIMATUM. Truth Social post: reopen Hormuz or US hits Iranian power plants. Iran responds: threatened Gulf power plant + desalination strikes. Iraq force majeure all foreign fields (~3M bpd). Dubai crude $160+. 20-nation joint statement rallied. WTI $99.10 (+2.5%), Brent ~$108. |
| Mar 21 | ~2 | — | — | DAY 22: GLOBAL COALITION EXPANDS. 20+ nations joint statement condemning Iran. UN Sec-Gen calls for Hormuz opening. Japan releases 80M bbl SPR. South Korea imposes fuel price caps. Dubai crude hit $160+ (record). Fortune: Asia energy crisis existential. Iran reluctant to discuss reopening after Larijani killing. WTI ~$97, Brent ~$104. |
| Mar 20 | ~2 | — | — | DAY 21: IRAN EXPANDS GULF ENERGY WAR. Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery (730K bpd capacity) hit by drones for 2nd consecutive day -- fires across multiple units; Mina Abdullah refinery also struck (KPC/KUNA). IRGC claims strike on US al-Dhafra airbase in UAE. Netanyahu agrees to halt South Pars strikes at Trump's request. Iran FM Araghchi warns of "zero restraint" if energy infrastructure targeted again. QatarEnergy: Ras Laffan damage means gas exports could be reduced by 1/6th for up to 5 years (Global News). IDF launches new airstrikes on Tehran during Nowruz (Persian New Year). Missiles over Tel Aviv -- 2nd barrage in 1 hour. Bessent: US may remove sanctions on Iranian crude to stabilize supply. Brent hit $120/bbl intraday before settling lower. WTI $94.80 (-0.8%), Brent ~$104, UNG $12.56 (-0.9%), USO $117.36 (-3.5%). |
| Mar 19 | ~3 | — | — | DAY 20: ENERGY WAR ESCALATION. Israel struck South Pars gas field (world's largest, shared with Qatar) -- phases 3-6 hit, fires, ops halted. Iran retaliates: Ras Laffan LNG (Qatar) hit by ballistic missiles -- "extensive damage" to Pearl GTL plant + LNG facilities; 2nd attack early Mar 19 with "sizeable fires." Qatar EXPELS Iranian military/security attaches, condemns "irresponsible" attack. Saudi: downed 4 ballistic missiles targeting Riyadh, debris near refinery; FM Prince Faisal: "trust in Iran entirely destroyed," reserves right to military action. UAE: Habshan gas + Bab oil field hit by debris from intercepts, gas facilities SHUT DOWN. Trump: "will obliterate entirety of South Pars" if Iran hits Qatar again; says Israel won't strike South Pars again. Iran gas to Iraq HALTED (30-40% of Iraq electricity). Ship struck by projectile 11nm east of Khor Fakkan (UKMTO). US dropped 5,000lb bunker-busters on Iranian missile sites along Hormuz. Brent surges 5%+. Only 21 tankers through Hormuz since Feb 28 (S&P Global). WTI $96.59 (+1.2%), Brent ~$101, UNG $12.67 (+3.9%), USO $121.67. |
| Mar 18 | ~3 | — | — | DAY 19: Israel strikes Iran's South Pars gas field -- phases 3, 4, 5, 6 hit with fires at Asaluyeh complex. Iran vows retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure: names Ras Laffan (Qatar), Samref/Yanbu + Sadara/Jubail (Saudi), Qatar Chemical (Doha), Al-Hosn (UAE) as targets. Ship struck east of Khor Fakkan by unknown projectile -- fire on board. Kuwait-flagged LPG carrier Gas Al Ahmadiah hit by projectile near Fujairah (Mar 17). Iran's security chief killed by Israeli strike; Trump's top counterterrorism official quits saying Israel pushed US into war. Israel demolishes building in central Beirut -- 10 killed, 27 injured; death toll 968. TSA officers calling out sick at 30%+ at major US airports. |
| Mar 17 | ~3 | — | — | DAY 18: WTI REBOUNDS $96.22 (+2.9%) after crashing to $93.05 previous session. Shah gas field (Abu Dhabi) SET ABLAZE by drone strike -- operations suspended. Fujairah oil terminal struck AGAIN -- oil loading suspended; CNBC: only UAE bypass for Hormuz. UAE briefly CLOSED AIRSPACE Tuesday morning, then reopened; missile warning alert sent to Dubai residents. IDF launched "wide-scale wave of strikes" on Tehran + Beirut overnight (BSS/AFP). Amnesty International: US responsible for Minab school attack Feb 28 killing 170+ mostly children (Tomahawk missile). Iran arrested 10 foreigners for spying. US Embassy Baghdad targeted again (C-RAM engaged, shrapnel hit embassy). Lebanon: 880+ killed, 1M+ displaced (20% of population); Israel massing at border; UNIFIL patrols fired on. US wounded now ~200. IEA: will release more oil if necessary. JIPMC: 20 confirmed incidents total, none in past 24h; 3 vessels observed transiting. Ships routing through Iranian waters = de facto Iranian control. Trump: "we don't even know their leaders... all of their leaders are dead as far as we know." Schools shifted online in UAE, flexible work introduced. WTI $96.22 (+2.91%), Brent est. ~$100, UNG $12.21, USO $115.03. |
| Mar 16 | ~5 | 3+ | — | DAY 17: WTI MASSIVE REVERSAL -- opened $100.93, hit $102.44, then CRASHED to $93.05 (-5.73%). ~$10/bbl intraday swing. PAKISTAN TANKERS CROSS HORMUZ: 3 Pakistani tankers in 10 days; "Karachi" transited hugging Iranian coast with AIS on. Iran FM Araghchi thanked Pakistan for "solidarity" (CNN/Bloomberg/Reuters). MarineTraffic: FIRST non-Iranian cargo ship openly sailed through with AIS on since war began -- "negotiated safe passage" (CBS/MarineTraffic). Lloyd's List: March 12 was first day with ZERO transits; eastbound 4x westbound last week; Iran shadow fleet dominating traffic. EU REJECTS HORMUZ MISSION: Kallas says "no appetite" from EU members to expand Aspides. Italy: "not sending ships" (Euronews/Tajani). Germany: "unrelated to NATO." Trump: "literally destroyed" almost everything on Kharg except oil; "we will remember" non-helpers; rates Macron "8/10"; China trip may be postponed. Starmer: UK won't be drawn into wider war, will work on "viable collective plan" (NPR/BBC). IDF LAUNCHES GROUND OPS IN S. LEBANON: 3 divisions, 2 more expected; Khiam battle; 850 killed, 830K displaced (BBC/Al Jazeera). Bessent: US "fine" with Iranian tankers getting through to "supply rest of world"; 30-day waiver for Russian oil on water (CNBC/Lloyd's List). IRGC claims 80% of US "strategic radars" disabled -- CENTCOM: "zero credibility." Saudi intercepted 37 drones in eastern region. Wall St best day since war: S&P +1%, Nasdaq +1.3% on oil pullback. IEA 411.9M bbl release begins in Asia-Pacific. Export volumes at less than 10% of prewar levels (PBS/IEA). WTI $93.05 (-5.73%), Brent ~$97, UNG $12.21 (-3.4%), USO $114.97 (-4.1%). |
| Mar 15 | ~5 | — | — | DAY 16: IRAN EVACUATES 3 UAE PORTS (Jebel Ali, Khalifa, Fujairah) -- first time threatening neighbor's non-US assets. Fujairah oil terminal hit by drone debris -- fire, ops suspended. UAE intercepted 4 ballistic + 6 drones on Mar 15; cumulative: 298 ballistic, 15 cruise, 1,606 UAVs since Feb 28 (Khaleej Times). 6 killed, 142 injuries across 25+ nationalities. QATAR EVACUATES Musheireb (Google, AmEx) + Education City (Microsoft, US universities) -- missile intercepted over Doha (BBC). IRGC 50th+51st waves hit al-Kharj (Saudi), Al Dhafra (UAE), Jufair (Bahrain), Ali Al Salem (Kuwait), Al Azraq (Jordan). Saudi: 26 drones + 6 ballistic missiles intercepted; 2 dead, 12 injured Riyadh. IDF EXPANDS strikes to western + central Iran targeting regime infrastructure + C2. Bnei Brak apartment hit, 2 injured. Brig-Gen Jalali Nasab (IRGC) killed -- 4th senior commander lost. Araghchi: "never asked for ceasefire." IRGC threatens to "eliminate" Netanyahu (Mehr). Lanaz refinery (Erbil) struck -- fire, ops halted. Isfahan factory kills 15. Iran Space Research Centre destroyed. Iran: 118 enemy drones downed. Lebanon: 850 killed, 850K displaced, 14 health workers killed (WHO). Jordan intercepted majority of 85 missiles/drones Week 2. Drones hit Kuwait airport. Blasts in Dubai Marina. Trump rejected ceasefire: "terms not good enough." WTI $98.71 (mkts closed Sun). |
| Mar 14 | ~5 | 2 | ~3 | DAY 15: 2 Indian LPG carriers confirmed safely crossed Hormuz (India Shipping Ministry). Iran ambassador to India says Tehran permitted passage. US struck Kharg Island military sites -- oil infrastructure preserved (CENTCOM video). IRGC threatens UAE ports/docks as "legitimate targets." Missile hit US Embassy Baghdad helipad. Intercepted Iranian drone debris hit UAE oil facility. Rezaei (Expediency Council): Hormuz "will not reopen" until US leaves Gulf. 2,500 Marines (31st MEU) + USS Tripoli ordered to Middle East from Japan. JIPMC: ~5 vessels/day, 20 confirmed incidents. Death toll surpasses 2,000 across all nations (AP). WTI $98.71 (markets closed Sat). |
| Mar 13 | ~3 | — | — | DAY 14: IDF launches "wide-scale" strikes on Tehran (0630 GMT) -- 200+ targets in 24h including missile launchers and defense systems. Iran fires missiles at Israel, 2 injured in north. Hapag-Lloyd charter Source Blessing hit by shrapnel, fire extinguished, crew safe (TIME). UKMTO: 16+ vessels attacked since Feb 28, 20 incidents total. Starboard/Bernama: daily transits collapsed from 153 avg to ~3. GCC lost $15B in energy revenues (Day 14). IRGC warns protesters. 1 French soldier killed in Iraq crash. UAE intercepted 278 missiles + 1,540 drones since Feb 28. |
| Mar 12-13 | ~2 | — | — | Day 12-13: 8+ vessels hit in 36h (deadliest period). 3 more ships struck by projectiles on Day 13 (UKMTO/ABC): 1 hit 35nm N of Jebel Ali. Al-Faw tankers ID'd: Safesea Vishnu + Zefyros -- IRGC claims strike. 1 Indian seafarer killed. Iraq oil ports CLOSED. INDIA-IRAN DEAL: First Indian tanker crosses Hormuz, nears Mumbai. Pushpak + Parimal moving safely. Bloomberg: India negotiating 20+ tanker passage. Chubb/$20B DFC insurance program. Bahrain fuel tank ablaze. Total since Feb 28: 19+. |
| Mar 11 | ~2 | — | — | IRGC struck Mayuree Naree (3 crew missing, presumed lost) + Express Room (Israeli-owned, Liberian flag). ONE Majesty (Japanese) + Star Gwyneth also hit. Tangsiri: "all vessels must obtain permission." IEA 400M bbl release. US Navy privately says escorts "too dangerous for now" (Reuters/gCaptain). Port of Salalah attacked, ops suspended. 13 confirmed vessel strikes since Feb 28. |
| Mar 10 | 7 | — | — | Spike to 7 transits (WGOWS data). First Chinese ships running outbound. WTI crashes to $80 before recovering. |
| Mar 8 | 4 | — | — | 97% drop from Feb 27 baseline (141); PRIMA struck by IRGC drone |
| Mar 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | PRIMA struck by IRGC drone; Louise P hit in strait |
| Mar 6 | 4 | 1 | 3 | Rescue tug Mussafah 2 sunk — 4 killed, 3 seriously injured |
| Mar 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | Iron Maiden transits signalling "CHINA OWNER" |
| Mar 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | IRGC claims total strait control; Pola runs blockade |
| Mar 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | P&I insurance void; Bogazici signals "MUSLIM VESSEL" |
| Mar 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | IRGC officially "closes" strait; Stena Imperative struck at Bahrain |
| Mar 1 | ~2 | — | — | Skylight struck near Khasab — 2 killed; MKD VYOM drone boat hit |
| Feb 28 | 17 | — | — | US/Israel strikes begin; IRGC VHF warnings to all vessels |
| Feb 27 | 37 | — | — | Last normal traffic day — pre-strike baseline |
Blockade Exceptions
🇮🇳
India-flagged tankers (CONFIRMED Mar 14)
2 Indian LPG carriers safely crossed Hormuz Saturday (India Shipping Ministry). Iran ambassador to India confirmed Tehran permitted passage. Modi-Pezeshkian phone call preceded deal. Bloomberg: 20+ more tankers being negotiated. India imports 40% of crude via Hormuz.
🇵🇰
Pakistan tankers (CONFIRMED Mar 16)
3 Pakistani tankers crossed Hormuz in 10 days. "Karachi" transited with AIS on hugging Iranian coast -- first non-Iranian open AIS transit since war (MarineTraffic/CBS). Iran FM Araghchi thanked Pakistan for "solidarity." Negotiated safe passage confirmed.
🇹🇭
Thai tanker (CONFIRMED Mar 25)
Bangchak Corp oil tanker safely transited Hormuz after Thai FM Sihasak coordinated with Iran's ambassador to Thailand. No fee charged. Iran requested vessel names in advance. Thai embassy in Muscat also coordinated with Oman. 2nd Thai ship (SCG Chemicals) awaiting clearance (Reuters).
🇨🇳
Chinese-claimed vessels
Individual ships broadcasting Chinese ownership via AIS. CSIS data shows no systematic preferential treatment — only 2 Chinese-flagged transits since Mar 1.
🇹🇷
Turkey (NEW -- Mar 13)
Turkish ship Rozana cleared through Hormuz with Iran's permission after diplomatic contacts. 14 more Turkish ships (incl. 6 cruise ships with passengers) still waiting. 171 crew total. Turkey issued highest maritime security warning.
🇮🇷
Iran-linked shadow fleet
Sanctioned vessels continue operating. High-risk tankers with identity tampering.
🇺🇸🇮🇱🇬🇧
US / Israel / Western allies
IRGC confirmed Mar 5 & 8: strait closed to US, Israel, and Western-allied ships.
🇫🇷🇬🇧🇩🇪🇮🇹
European escort coalition
EU extended Aspides to Hormuz but Germany, Greece, Italy all refuse military involvement. Saudi also refuses. Denmark signals openness. Trump called for coalition with France, Japan, Korea, UK -- none committed. No escort operational.
WTI Crude (Jun 4)
$92.27
WTI / CLUSD $92.27 (-1.59%) at the Jun 4 14:11 UTC finance fetch | Eased on the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire framework and Trump's "reopen upon signing" remarks, after spiking to $96.02 on the Jun 3 Kuwait-airport and cross-Gulf strikes | Security premium persists with the strait still controlled and the MOU unsigned
Brent Crude (Jun 4)
$94.81
Brent / BZUSD $94.81 (-3.07%) at the Jun 4 14:11 UTC finance fetch | Pullback from the Jun 3 $97.81 settle on ceasefire-framework optimism; Hormuz reopening remains unresolved and mine-clearance terms are not yet signed
Natural Gas (UNG)
~$11.55
-5.3% vs $12.20 prev close | Ceasefire pullback | Ras Laffan LNG "extensive damage" still impacting supply
US Gasoline Avg
$4.20+/gal
+70¢ from pre-war $2.90 (AAA)
WTI Crude — Feb 1 to Present
Crisis escalationEnergy Supply Impact
20.3M bpd
pre-war oil flow through Hormuz; Al Jazeera May 21 estimates ~27% of global maritime oil trade and 120-140 ships/day in peacetime
UPON SIGNING
ABC / Tasnim Jun 4: Trump says Hormuz reopens "immediately upon signing" the MOU, subject to mine clearance ("which we do not think there are any"); deal possible "this weekend" | Rubio Jun 2: Iran has mined "large segments" of the strait; any deal needs no tolls, no vessel attacks, Iranian help demining | UK/France finalizing a multinational mine-clearing mission; EU proposes Aspides take "the primary role"
CRITICAL
MARAD advisory 2026-004 active through Sep 9: high Iranian attack risk in Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman; significant GNSS spoofing/jamming | JMIC Update 024 overall maritime risk: CRITICAL
Up to $2M
reported Hormuz passage authorization / security fee per vessel; maritime legality and sanctions exposure remain disputed
US Carriers
3 CSGs
Ford + Lincoln + Bush (en route)
Iran Ships Destroyed
161+
DAY 96-97: US-IRAN TRADE STRIKES UNDER A STRAINED CEASEFIRE | PBS / AP Jun 3: US struck an IRGC ground-control/radar facility on Qeshm Island (anti-ship missiles, drones, fast-attack craft tunnels) plus Tehran and the Kharg Island oil terminal in the prior 36h; Iran drones hit Kuwait International Airport (1 killed, 63+ injured) and targeted the US 5th Fleet HQ in Bahrain | Cumulative IRGC vessels destroyed remains 161+ pending confirmed battle-damage accounting
IRGC Capability
DEGRADED
Leaked US intel (Axios): ~50% ballistic missiles intact, ~60% IRGC Navy, ~2/3 air force | 12,300+ targets struck (CENTCOM) | Jun 3 strikes (PBS/AP): US hit an IRGC radar/ground-control facility on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz plus Tehran and Kharg Island; Iran retaliated against Kuwait airport and the US 5th Fleet HQ Bahrain -- threats still active despite ceasefire talks
Status (Jun 4)
TALKS + STRIKES
Day 97: Araghchi reports "no tangible progress" in US talks; a US-announced Israel-Lebanon ceasefire framework (reconvene week of Jun 22) was rejected by Hezbollah Jun 4, with fire continuing and a UNIFIL peacekeeper killed | Trump says Hormuz reopens "immediately upon signing," deal possible "this weekend" | Jun 3 saw US-Iran cross-strikes (Kuwait airport, Qeshm Island, US 5th Fleet HQ Bahrain) | Hormuz controlled / militarized; MARAD 2026-004 active through Sep 9; JMIC risk: CRITICAL
US Naval Forces
CSG
USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78)
CEASEFIRE: Strikes suspended for 2 weeks. Carrier Strike Group conducted 40 days of combat operations. CENTCOM totals: 12,300+ targets struck, 13,000+ combat flights, 155+ Iranian vessels destroyed. Kharg Island military targets obliterated -- oil infrastructure preserved. USS Ford departed Croatia after non-combat fire repair, redeployed to region (Al Jazeera Day 35).
CSG
USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72)
CEASEFIRE: Strikes suspended. Redirected from South China Sea early in conflict. Provided dual-carrier 24hr strike tempo throughout war. Remains in region.
LCS
USS Canberra / Tulsa / Santa Barbara
CEASEFIRE: LCS at NSA Bahrain. Base sustained repeat missile strikes throughout war. Bahrain closed highways multiple times due to intercept debris. 5th Fleet operations paused during ceasefire.
CSG
USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77)
CEASEFIRE: Third carrier group arrived in Mediterranean. Deployed Mar 11. Provided additional strike capacity during escalation phase.
LHA
USS Tripoli (LHA-7) + 31st MEU
CEASEFIRE: US suspending strikes for 2 weeks. 2,500 Marines (31st MEU) + ~3,000 from 82nd Airborne in region. Pentagon: 13–15 US KIA, 303–538 wounded in Operation Epic Fury (figures vary by source/date). F-15E lost Apr 4 -- both crew rescued (Axios/Military.com). A-10 lost -- pilot safe. Hegseth fired Army Chief Gen. Randy George + 2 generals mid-war (Al Jazeera). Journalist Kittleson kidnapped by Kataib Hezbollah (NYT/NPR). CENTCOM: 12,300+ targets, 13,000+ flights, 155+ vessels. Islamabad talks begin Friday Apr 10. Ceasefire does not include Lebanon -- IDF continues operations there (Netanyahu/Fox).
Iran Force Status
IRIN
Regular Navy — Severely Degraded
CEASEFIRE: 155+ vessels destroyed or damaged in 40-day campaign (CENTCOM). Surface fleet effectively crippled. Trump claimed Iran's navy "gone" in national address (Apr 1). Konarak base wrecked. Mojtaba Khamenei confirmed injured (Guardian). Despite losses, Iran shot down F-15E Strike Eagle Apr 4 + A-10 Warthog + MQ-9 Reaper drone, demonstrating residual air-defense capability.
IRGCN
IRGC Navy — Operational but Degraded
DAY 40: CEASEFIRE IN EFFECT. 2-week pause agreed Apr 7 -- Hormuz reopening via Iran military coordination (Al Jazeera/CBS/NPR). Pakistan-mediated "Islamabad Accord" -- talks Friday Apr 10 (Reuters/Fox). Iran Supreme National Security Council accepted: "does not signify termination of war" (Fortune/PBS). Israel also suspends strikes (Reuters/Fox). Under proposal: 15-20 days for broader settlement incl. nuclear program for sanctions relief (Reuters). F-15E shot down Apr 4 (Military.com) -- both crew rescued (Axios). IRGC intel chief Khademi + Quds cmdr Bagheri killed Apr 6 (IDF/Jerusalem Post). Oil crashes: WTI from $112.95 to ~$96 (-14–16%), Brent ~$94 (-13–17%) (BBC/CNBC/Fortune). CENTCOM: 12,300+ targets, 13,000+ flights, 155+ vessels destroyed. US: 13–15 KIA, 303–538 wounded (Pentagon/Wikipedia — figures vary by source). Iran: 2,076–7,779+ dead (Health Ministry vs HRANA/other estimates — widely disputed), 26,500+ injured (Al Jazeera). Philippines + Iraq granted Hormuz passage.
UAV
Drone + Missile Arsenal
CEASEFIRE IN EFFECT as of Apr 7/8. Pre-ceasefire: F-15E Strike Eagle shot down Apr 4 -- first US aircraft lost in 20+ yrs (Military.com/Reuters). A-10 also downed (Axios). Both F-15 crew rescued incl. "heavy firefight" special forces extraction (Axios). IRGC downed MQ-9 Reaper (Al Jazeera). Iran used cluster munitions on Tel Aviv (Ynet). Houthis + Iran + Hezbollah coordinated strike on Israel Apr 5. IRGC intel chief Khademi + Quds commander Bagheri killed Apr 6 (IDF). Mahshahr Petrochemical Zone: 5 killed 170 wounded. Kuwait refinery hit 3rd time. Abu Dhabi Borouge suspended. Iran: 2,076–7,779+ dead (figures disputed across sources), 26,500+ injured (Al Jazeera). US: 13–15 KIA, 303–538 wounded (Pentagon vs Wikipedia). Israel: 11+ killed, 406+ injured (Wikipedia). Lebanon: 1,497–1,530 killed (Al Jazeera/Wikipedia).
PROXY
Houthi (Yemen) + Hezbollah + Militias — Active
CEASEFIRE DOES NOT COVER PROXIES. Houthis joined war Mar 28 -- ballistic missiles at Beersheba + Eilat, first Houthi attack since joining (Axios/Bloomberg). Houthis + Iran + Hezbollah launched coordinated long-range strike on Israel Apr 5 targeting Lod airport (Al Jazeera). Hezbollah claimed 60 operations in 24hrs against Israel (Al Jazeera Day 35). Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah kidnapped US journalist Kittleson in Baghdad (NYT/NPR). Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq claimed 6 attacks on US bases in Iraq in one day. Lebanon: 1,497–1,530 killed, IDF operations continuing under ceasefire (Netanyahu: Lebanon "not included"). Red Sea Suez diversions continue.